Saturday, April 12, 2008

Next Season: 5-11 or 11-5 in A-10 play?

I found a rather peculiar statistic on Wikipedia not quite sure what it means, but it serves as an interesting way to think about next season. Which in-conference season will we have, 11-5 or 5-11?


George Washington



5th (West)


George Washington



T-4th (West)


George Washington



2nd (West)

NIT 1st Round


George Washington



1st (West)

NCAA 1st Round


George Washington




NCAA 2nd Round


George Washington




NCAA 1st Round


George Washington




(sources: wikipedia and kenpom)

Every single season Hobbs has coached at GW (except for the undefeated run in 05-06), his teams have finished 5-11 or 11-5 in conference play.

Which will it be next season and why?

My thoughts after the jump.

One would assume that a team returning 5 starters (effectively with the absentia of Rice during much of the season) including 4 seniors (including two former transfers) that this would be the type of program ready to jump back into the limelight. Unfortunately the Colonials have far too many question marks still for such a rosy prognostication.

First and foremost, PG. GW may have lived and died by the three much of last season, but the true drama was at the 1 spot. With Travis King going down during the summer with a fractured knee cap, and no immediately identifiable viable second option, Hobbs turned to his lone senior leader-to-be Rice. When the sweet-shooting natural, but undersized two could not transition his game, Hobbs moved to point guard by committee, giving Rice, Witherspoon, and Freshman Miles Beatty equal reigns, but confusion's reign bested all three. From desperation, inspiration. Walk-on Johnny Lee began to command significant minutes. Turnovers decreased, needles were threaded and the Colonials regained some mojo (including some of the best dunks I've EVER seen at Smitty). Lee got the starting nod and put up some remarkable showings, particularly against Xavier.

Next season it's unclear that King will be able jump right back in to where he was two seasons ago (or that two seasons ago even showed that much given the support he had in Elliott, Rice, and elsewhere on the team). Just as Rice collapsed without the support of a distributor like Elliott, King will undoubtedly feel the same pinch as he tries to pick up the broken pieces of this team.
Should Lee remain a fixture for the Colonials next season and spell a few minutes rest for the scholarship athletes, it will hopefully be a testament to his continued determination, not another desperation decision. Pass-first, but successful scoring recruit Tony Taylor will also hopefully help in this process, assuming he is able to transition his high school game to D1. With a King Medical Red Shirt for 2007-08, GW has three years of Taylor/King to look forward to.

There are many reasons to be optimistic, but also skeptical. Let's hope GW returns to 11-5 form.

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