I hope we all enjoyed that UMES drubbing. How 'bout that come-from-behind one against Longwood? Remember these wins, GW fans- they may be all that we manage this season.GW is yet to win a game on the road this year, the A-10 is up while GW is down, and with the new structure of the league we are slated to play fellow "top-tier" teams Xavier, Rhode Island, and St. Louis twice, home and away. Eeek.
Will GW get to notch at least one more W for the year? I'll save the "top 12 finish to play in Atlantic City" question for later.
Let's jump into it...
This post is not intended to be defeatist. GW is transitioning after a string of successful years in a historically strong but recently struggling upper-mid major conference. No one said building a program that competes year in and out is easy. That said, GW may very well round out the year at 6-20.
In case you missed it the first time, GW is yet to win on the road this year. That includes two lopsided loses to America East Conference powerhouses UMBC and Binghamton which have "soft spoken" and "composed" fellow blogger Andrew grunting and swear off assumptions for good.
What have we learned by January of this season?
GW has only beaten teams with an RPI of 206 or worse at home.
GW has not yet won on the road.
If those parameters hold, according to the RPI estimates at kenpom.com, GW doesn't win a conference game this season. (His weighted prognostications give us one game by the slimmest of margins). But who cares about number crunchers. Let's look at the home games and fellow A-10 cellar dwellers who serve as the best chance for one more win this year. In recent years GW has dominated the likes of Fordham, St. Bonaventure, Richmond, and La Salle. What are the prospects this season?
MUST WIN
Richmond (2/23) and La Salle (2/6) play at the Smith Center this season. My money is on one (hopefully both) of these games. Last time GW lost to La Salle was 2003.
PLEASE WIN
GW faces the Bonnies (2/16) and Fordham (1/16) on the road this year.
The Bonnies have made some pleasant noise in the OOC including a win over Albany and a struggling Bucknell. Although GW hasn't lost to the Bonnies since 2003, this game in Olean won't be a push over. A win (or even a close one) in the Bronx against Fordham and this game should fall under the MUST WIN heading.
Fordham is our first in-conference road test and could set the tone for our conference play outside Smitty. The last time GW lost to Fordham was 2001. The Rams will be coming off two hard road games against an up-and-coming Duquesne squad and dominant Xavier. Their upperclassmen-laden team has underwhelmed thus far as team cohesion and and leadership have been suspect. Sound familiar?
Nothing is a sure thing on the road this season.
WOULD BE REALLY NICE TO WIN
In addition to Fordham, A10 play begins with another significant test to GW's ability to to play into mid-March. This Thursday (1/10), we host Rick Majerus's St. Louis team that has been inconsistent early in the OCC but is riding a three-win (home) streak against respectable competition including the struggling Southern Illinois Salukis. GW also plays the Billikens away this year (in their new Mega-Arena), but struggled there last year.
WOW I MEAN IF WE. . . WOW, LIKE, I CANT EVEN PROPERLY VERBALIZE IT
Home vs. St. Joe's, Dayton, UMass
Away vs. Charlotte, Temple, and Duquesne
PRETTY MUCH A DONE DEAL
Xavier Home & Away
Rhody Home & Away
Comments, thoughts, disagreements?
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